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Blue Jays are pursuing Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. Whats behind the urgency to win?

NASHVILLE — What has gotten into the Toronto Blue Jays?

For most of the Mark Shapiro-Ross Atkins tenure, which began in the latter part of 2015, the Jays operated in a mostly conservative fashion. They made exceptions, signing left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu for $80 million, outfielder George Springer for $150 million and righty Kevin Gausman for $110 million. But rarely did they play at the top of the market.

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This offseason, in a marked departure, the Jays are pursuing the biggest names — two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani in free agency, outfielder Juan Soto in trade. And the urgency with which Toronto is maneuvering seemingly reflects a series of circumstances that is forcing the club into win-now mode.

Juan Soto is almost certain to become a free agent after the 2024 season. (Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

Those circumstances include:

• The Jays’ disappointing and controversial exit from the postseason, when manager John Schneider lifted Jose Berríos from a shutout in the fourth inning of Game 2 of the Division Series against the Minnesota Twins. The Blue Jays lost that game and were eliminated, and Atkins subsequently assigned sole responsibility to Schneider before later taking greater accountability. The Jays, 0-6 in the past four postseasons, have not won a playoff game since 2016.

• The restlessness of the fan base with the team’s performance at a time when Rogers Centre is undergoing a $300 million renovation, prompting a rise in ticket prices. The Yankees, Cardinals, Giants and Red Sox are among other clubs dealing with fan unrest, but the Jays’ troubles are perhaps even more acute, considering they are trying to sell new premium seating to justify the cost of their renovations.

• The threat to the team’s future competitiveness with both shortstop Bo Bichette and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both two years away from free agency. The Jays have been unable to sign either player to an extension, raising questions about their respective desires to stay. Guerrero also might not be as attractive an extension candidate as he once was, regressing offensively since his monstrous 2021 season.

• The possibility that Shapiro and/or Atkins could be in danger of losing their jobs. Shapiro is signed through 2025, Atkins through ‘26, but pressure seemingly is mounting. The Jays’ owner, Rogers Communications, authorized a new $100 million player development complex in Dunedin, Fla., along with the $300 million in ballpark renovations. A publicly traded company, Rogers surely wants to see a return on its investments.

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No longer are the Jays a young, upstart team on the rise. To the contrary, they underachieved last season while exceeding the luxury-tax threshold for the first time. And now, as they face the potential losses of third baseman Matt Chapman, outfielder Kevin Kiermaier and others in free agency, an injection of talent is needed, both to keep the team competitive and sell tickets to their newly renovated park.

The Jays hardly are guaranteed to come away with Ohtani, who also is being pursued by the Dodgers, Cubs and potentially other clubs. Ohtani is expected to command a contract of at least $500 million. While the Jays play in Canada’s largest city and represent the entire country, they generally do not engage in bidding wars with teams in the biggest U.S. markets, much less win them.

Soto also could be a long shot. The Yankees are among the other teams interested in the outfielder, and the Padres, not surprisingly, want a steep package for a hitter with a .946 career OPS (Guerrero is at .844, Bichette .826). The problem with Soto is that he amounts to a one-year, $30 million-plus rental. Represented by Scott Boras, he is almost certain to hit the open market at the end of the season.

Put it all together, and the Jays are in a precarious spot. Their pitching last season was strong, producing the second-best ERA in the American League, but their offense was decidedly average, tying for 14th in runs scored. Springer, entering the fourth of a six-year contract, is in decline. And the Toronto farm system is not exactly brimming with talent. Baseball America rated it the game’s sixth-worst in its midseason organizational rankings.

Hence, the need for a big splash. Without one, the Jays could be headed for a fall, particularly if Bichette and Guerrero both depart after 2025. The prospect is frightening. The Jays cannot afford to rebuild. Their fans will grow even more alienated if they enter a losing cycle while charging higher ticket prices.

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Ohtani, who has said he wants to play for a winner after enduring six straight losing seasons with the Angels, might look at the Jays and see too many questions. Or he might be intrigued by the idea of playing in one of North America’s cleanest and most diverse cities — especially if the Jays give him the most money.

Soto would be more of a short-term play, but if he led the Jays deeper into the postseason, he might prove worth the price, both in players and dollars. At that point, perhaps the Jays could sign him to the same type of contract they evidently are willing to give Ohtani.

Ohtani, Soto, the Jays need something, anything. Their situation is pressing. A major push is warranted. They have almost no choice but to swing big. And to connect.

(Top photo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Shohei Ohtani: John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)

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Artie Phelan

Update: 2024-06-24